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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Sept. 22, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading slightly lower late last night.
    • Dow -23, S&P -2, Nasdaq -18, Russell +2. (11:00 pm ET).
  • We still look ok technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Fed, Coronavirus headlines, how the economy is re-opening or not, the Global Economy, China, and upcoming elections.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - remains a bit elevated.

Today's Economic Calendar:

10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.00 million SAAR, up from 5.86 million in July. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report 5.92 million SAAR.

10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

10:30 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The market had a big down day on Monday, but do notice end of day dip buying trimmed the losses. We finished at the highs of the day, which shows up in the Money Flow as it had a positive day. The Money Flow is showing us the dip did get bought to some extent. We still do not like being under the 50-day moving average. For the moment it appears we will be in a large trading range between SPY 320 and SPY 340.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • No major changes.

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • We are below the 50-day moving average.
  • The MACD has been declining.
  • The current Money Flow is negative.
  • What about the Fundamentals? Virus, Economy & Jobs, Elections, Politics, The FED, and China troubles?
  • A lot to think and worry about!
  • The Vix is still a bit high and may remain high for the foreseeable future.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are still above the 200-day MAs. (Bullish). But have dropped below the 50-day MA. (Bearish).
  • Going under the 50-day moving average gives us a negative technical signal.

  • We see a sideways - range bound market for the moment. SPY 320 as support and SPY 340 as resistance.
  • However, do notice we have more negatives than positives listed above.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is neutral/declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (332.76)(+0.21) and the 200-day MA (307.10)(+0.11)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are well above the 200-day moving average (307.10) which is strong support. (Bullish).

We are above the SPY 320 line, which is a strong support level. While SPY 340 appears to be strong resistance.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (Continues to climb and make new highs), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
    If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
    Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now), DT - Dynatrace.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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