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Today's Trackdown for Monday - August 2, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Monday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.
    • Dow +160, S&P +24, Nasdaq +79, Russell +16. (12:20 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).

Today's Economic Calendar:

10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.9, up from 60.6 in June. The employment index was at 49.9% in June, and the new orders index was at 66.0%.

10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for July.

THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets took a small pullback last Friday on an Amazon earnings miss and renewed Covid variant fears. There were no major changes to our chart indicators. We do notice the Stochastics are still high/overbought, but have come down a bit. If the early futures for this morning's open continue higher we have a shot of getting near the record highs again on the S&P.

The market can not keep going straight up, so from time to time we may get pullbacks or brief corrections.

Technically & chart wise the market looks good. "Buy-the-Dip" is still in. SPY 425 is our strong support level, it could also be considered a stop level for some traders.


* If you have any questions, opinions, or comments to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are above the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are high/overbought.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


RECAP:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • The risk of drops or brief pullbacks still exist in the short term.
  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates? Covid?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (426.82)(+0.58) and the 200-day MA (390.86)(+0.46)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the 425 support level.

The market is still climbing in a long-term up-channel.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis (A bargain here), HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation), DT Dynatrace (Good longer-term hold).
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

** TGTX is a great buy at current levels. Longer-term should be much higher. Accumulate this one now. **

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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