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Today's Trackdown: Wednesday - July 31, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Tuesday's action:

The stock market closed slightly lower in front of Apple's earnings report after the close and the Fed's rate decision tomorrow afternoon. The S&P 500 dropped 7 points, but still remains above the 3,000 mark.

News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit higher late last night... Dow +59, S&P +2, Nasdaq +24, Russell +1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is in the low-teens which is usually considered a 'risk on' area.
  • For those who watch the VIX for clues about the market, the VIX has remained relatively low even with the volatility in stocks seems higher in the last few days/week. This could mean the market will continue drifting higher.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR remains an ongoing concern along with middle east (Iran) tensions.
  • We are in EARNINGS season. Apple earnings came out and will move the tech market higher as they were viewed positively. $AAPL

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:15 am ADP employment July
8:30 am Employment cost index Q2
8:30 am Treasury refunding  
2 pm FOMC announcement
2:30 pm Jerome Powell press conference


Quick Notes:   (none)


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets were a bit lower on Tuesday, as we still await the fed decision Wednesday afternoon. On the chart, not much changed and we are still using a bit of caution. The Stochastics are a bit high, as the other indicators are pointing to a continued drift higher. We reiterate the note above, as the charts mean a bit less this week with all of the events that are scheduled.

We are still expecting that 295/296 will continue to be support and that 290 will be strong support. SPY 300 should be watched to see if it can become a support level. Market events may cause a bit of volatility this week.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is positive.

The 50-day MA (291.23)(+.33) and the 200-day MA (276.23)(+.13)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 290 and the new support level at 296. SPY 300 level has a chance of becoming a new support level depending on this week's events.

  • Nasdaq Composite +24.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +20.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.6% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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