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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Feb. 14, 2020

  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

Recap of the previous market day.... (click here).... Dow -128.11 at 29423.22, Nasdaq -13.99 at 9711.99, S&P -5.51 at 3373.94


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.
  • Dow +93, S&P +12, Nasdaq +48, Russell +7.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - the CBOE Volatility Index is in the mid-teens, returning to levels before the coronavirus started to hit stocks last month. According to the Vix we are back to 'Risk-On'.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 76.8%.

10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 99.3.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronavirus news is in the headlines and can spark fears. *

The markets ended a bit lower on Thursday on Coronavirus fears and a short-term overbought with the Stochastics.

CHANGES:

  • None

POSITIVES:

  • We are above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
  • All 3 MAs are also in the proper alignment and headed in an upward direction. This is bullish.
  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is slightly positive.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are overbought.
  • We may have risen to far/to quickly.

OPINION:

  • Longer-term bullish. Shorter-term bullish, but using some caution. We are susceptible to some pullbacks or dips. 
  • We will keep using some caution as the coronavirus is not cured and we may have risen to new highs to fast. We would still buy the dips if any occur.
  • The  U.S. economy is doing well.

Using some caution:  * Meaning - we would not use excessive margin at this time. *

VIX:   Spiked a bit on virus fears initially, but is back down into the mid-teens. This is a 'Risk-On' level.

INDICATORS:   The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought. The Money Flow is a slight positive now.

MA +/-:   The 50-day MA (323.97)(+0.54) and the 200-day MA (300.59)(+0.24)

On the 9-month chart below, we are in a megaphone like uptrend channel. Caution though as we are currently just above upper trend line, which is a high or overbought look. In many cases we stay in the channel either by pullbacks or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up or a new pattern emerges. 320 is marked as a support level.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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