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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Sept. 17, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:    Sept. 16, 2019

Dow 27076.80 -142.70 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 8153.58 -23.17 (-0.28%)
SP 500 2997.96 -9.43 (-0.31%)

The S&P 500 lost 9 points on Monday after the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil refineries sent oil prices up nearly 15% and escalated geopolitical tensions. The broader market held up relatively well as the U.S. is less dependent on imported oil than it used to be, and the economy has been resilient in face of slowing global growth.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were slightly lower late last night... Dow -8, S&P -1, Nasdaq -3, Russell -1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is down in the mid-teens. This is a level at which usually means we are in a risk on environment.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still an ongoing drama!

Today's Economic Calendar:

9:15 am Industrial production Aug.
9:15 am Capacity utilization Aug.
10 am Home builders' index Sept.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended lower on Monday with minimal change to the chart. We are still cautious due to the Stochastics being overbought and the many macro economic and geopolitical issues we are still facing. Now trouble in the mid-east/oil and with Iran will add some volatility.

We are now right at the resistance level at SPY 300. We would be taking some profits (on a case by case basis depending on your own risk tolerance). Are we really ready to make a new all-time high?

Remember one bad tweet and we get blown up!

The strong resistance level we had at 294 was decisively broken to the upside and is now support. We closed above 300 again, but will continue to observe it as a resistance level for now. However, if we get another rally 300 could become support. The only official resistance above us right now is at the all-time highs near 302.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought. The Money Flow is positive. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (294.78)(+.04) and the 200-day MA (280.25)(+.18)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 280 and the top just over the 300 level. We are in a 280/290 up to the 302 top for the trading range for now.

  • Nasdaq Composite +22.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +19.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.1% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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