Send me real-time posts from this site at my email

Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Dec. 17, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:   Housing Starts & Unemployment #s this morning. Fed reaction?

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.
    • Dow +95, S&P +11, Nasdaq +40, Russell +17. (1:30 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, and political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - Currently in the 20s still, currently not an issue.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 815,000 initial claims, down from 853,000 last week.

8:30 AM, Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.530 million SAAR, unchanged from 1.530 million SAAR.

8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 19.0, down from 26.3.

11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Mixed day on Wednesday as the market digests vaccine progress and Fed news. We had no changes to our chart indicators. We are sitting just under new all-time highs.

"The possibility of a consolidation, sideways market, or pullback of some kind may happen at some point." But not necessarily. Positive momentum and easy money can keep driving us to new highs.

* We still have our 'Bull Flag" formation pictured on our chart, as we have definite gap up and breakaway. We still are using a bit of caution as this market has come up a long way and some uncertainties still remain. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top?
  • * Note: The 50-day moving average has gotten way ahead of the 200-day. This can be an overbought issue.
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Election issues, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).

  • The possibility of making new highs is on the table as the technicals are looking well.
  • SPY 365 acted as support recently and is a level to watch.
  • Charts alone without thinking about the Fed, politics, vaccine, virus, etc looks positive.
  • But those things should be kept in mind.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (353.15)(+0.71) and the 200-day MA (316.41)(+0.31)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 340 level, which appears to be strong support now with 360 as minor support.

The market looks to be making an impressive up-channel since the March low. Technically looking well.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us this year/tripled), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T (7%) high dividend yield.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


If you liked this article, please click the LIKE (thumbs up) button.

Feel free to leave any comments, question, or opinions. (Sign-up if you haven't already done so)!

Follow us/bookmark us and check back occasionally for additional articles or comments on our page...

Wild Tiger Trading - start/main page.

With our Daily Trackdowns, check back for additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.

.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue