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Today's Trackdown for Thursday - Sept 16, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


Today's Economic Calendar:

** 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 310 thousand initial claims last week.

8:30 AM, Retail sales for August will be released. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in retail sales.

8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, up from 19.4.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets had a very nice rebound day on Wednesday. We had a nice bounce off of oversold technical levels.

We had no changes to our chart indicators. The MACD and the Money Flow are still declining, while the Stochastics are still low/oversold. Under normal conditions the dip buying should continue.

(Some people are telling us that September is a weak month historically for the markets.)

* Side note: This Friday is a quadruple options expiration day which maybe adding volatility and volume to the markets.

Currently, the longer-term trend higher is still intact. Notice we are right at the long-term trend support line on our 8-month chart. For a long time now this line has held and turned the markets back up. Watch this.

SPY 437.50 is a support level. SPY 425 is our strong support level, it could also be considered a stop level for some traders.


* If you have any questions, opinions, or comments to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Money Flow negative and in decline is a concern.
  • Below the 20-day moving average.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OUTLOOK:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • However, the risk of drops or brief pullbacks still exist in the short term.

  • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates? Covid still hurting the economy?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive/declining. The Stochastics are oversold. The Money Flow is negative/declining.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (442.26)(+0.30) and the 200-day MA (407.08)(+0.44)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the 425 strong support level, Support at 437.

The market is still climbing in a long-term up-channel.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Doing very well lately!), CARA - Cara Therapeutics, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis (A bargain here), HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics (Got bought out by Pfizer for a huge gain!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation), DT Dynatrace (Good longer-term hold).
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

** TGTX is a great buy at current levels. Longer-term this will be higher. Accumulate this one. Their pipeline MS drug looks like it will be best in class. **

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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