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Today's Trackdown for Thursday - Oct 14, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 315 thousand initial claims, down from 326 thousand last week.

8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets had a good day to me on Wednesday. The Dow was flat, but the Nasdaq had a nice gain. The Fed news and other corporate news was not all that positive, BUT the market shrugged that off. This is a bullish sign that the downside momentum, if any, has come to an end. We think the next move will be up. 

Technically the market is still looking a bit weak. On our chart indicators, we had no changes. Gut feeling says we are about to improve on some of the indicators.

A sideways range bound market may be the next pattern to develop. Currently we have SPY 430 to 440 as a possible trading range. 430 did manage to hold the floor.

SPY 425 has been our strong support level and we expect this to hold. This level could also be considered a stop area for some traders if it does not hold.


* If you have any questions, opinions, or comments to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • We are below the 50-day moving average.
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OUTLOOK:

  • We could see a sideways range bound type of market for a while.
  • Risk of drops or pullbacks exist. Increased periods of volatility are a possibility as the markets try to figure things out.

  • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates? Covid still hurting the economy?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is negative. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (441.64)(-0.09) and the 200-day MA (413.10)(+0.34)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the 425 strong support level, but our previous support lines were broken.

Next step is to see if a new trend emerges or what type of trading range develops in the near term.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Doing very well lately!), CARA - Cara Therapeutics, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis (A bargain here), HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Accumulate under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics (Got bought out by Pfizer for a huge gain!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation), DT Dynatrace (Good longer-term hold).
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

** TGTX is a great buy at current levels. Longer-term this will be higher. Accumulate as much as possible. Their pipeline MS drug looks like it will be best in class. **

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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