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Today's Trackdown: Wednesday - March 24, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.

News to keep in mind Wednesday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night, with the Nasdaq leading this time.
    • Dow +20, S&P +3, Nasdaq +55, Russell +1. (9:10 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix has risen a bit Tuesday during the decline in the markets, but still near the 20 level. Currently not a concern.

Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but news items can move the markets around.)


The markets had a down day on Tuesday. There were a few concerns for the markets; bond yields, virus issues, US/China tensions, and oil prices sliding. There were some changes to our chart indicators. The Money Flow with the selling flipped from slightly positive to slightly negative and the Stochastics are now low.

We are currently in the SPY 380-395 trading range on the 4-month chart. But, if we get back to the daily drifts higher, we may break out of the range and make new highs. We are currently thinking a 50/50 chance.

* Repeating: Recently we mentioned two Scenarios: 1) We break above the SPY 395 resistance line to new highs over, or 2) we get turned around and stay within a trading range.

At the moment, the second possibility is winning. Keep both possibilities in mind when making your trades. Make your own determination on the possibilities and your personal risk tolerances.

Questions to ask oneself before the trade: How well is the economy is reopening? What does the stimulus deal passing mean? Will treasury yields stay low/stabilize? Will stimulus checks going to the 'Robinhood' kids add volatility to the markets?

Positives: We are above the 50-day moving average and well above the SPY 380 support level.

Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are still leading the markets so far this year. Up 10% YTD now!

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


  • The Stochastics are now low.
  • The Money Flow dropped to a slight negative.


  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.


  • The Money Flow is slightly negative.
  • Possible market top or trading range?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The MACD is positive. (Bullish).

  • We are in trading range of SPY 380-395 with mostly positive indicators.
  • Technically we are looking fairly well. A resumption of bullish trend and new highs is possible.
  • BUT... There is a chance we settle into a trading range for some time. Risks to the markets still remain.
    • IF/When will the Fed and stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *


The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are low. The Money Flow is slightly negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (384.62)(+0.19) and the 200-day MA (349.11)(+0.38)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 380 support level.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel.

STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for some quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Dropped from 50 to low 30s, good time to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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