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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - July 18, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:

The S&P 500 lost 19 points on Wednesday, pressured by noticeable losses in the transport stocks. CSX Corp. ($CSX 71.38, -8.17, -10.3%) provided disappointing earnings results and guidance, bringing down the entire sector. The broader market traded lower for most of the day with losses accelerating into the close.

News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit lower late last night... Dow -48, S&P -8, Nasdaq -52, Russell -5.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is still in the mid-teens which is usually considered a 'risk on' area.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR remains an ongoing concern.
  • SEE CHART - Use caution this week as a pullback setup was present

Today's Economic Calendar:

Jul 18 08:30 Initial Claims 07/13
Jul 18 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/06
Jul 18 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Jul
Jul 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun
Jul 18 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventories 07/13


Quick Notes:   (none)


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets were lower on Wednesday as what we expected did happen. We leave our caution paragraph below. On the chart, we are still above our support level at 290 and our minor support level at 295. With the futures indicating a lower open the pullback may continue on today. We do expect the support levels to hold for the most part. Small chance 295 could bend, but 290 is very solid support.

CAUTION: The current setup looks like a possible pullback could take place. Earnings season has started and could cause a bit of volatility. (Recent example = Netflix $NFLX). Weakness is possible as the Stochastics are high and the MACD is showing some signs of weakening. Also the Money Flow has taken a little dip the last few days.

The GOOD News: I expect that our support levels will hold.

The MACD is positive, but showing some weakness. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is positive, but has started declining.

The 50-day MA (288.45)(+.13) and the 200-day MA (275.52)(+.06)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 290 and the new minor support level 295.

  • Nasdaq Composite +23.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +19.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +15.0% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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