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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - April 22, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


* Notice to readers: We will be changing our format to make this a bit shorter / faster. Please do ask questions or make comments if you have them. *


News to keep in mind Thursday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading slightly lower last night.
    • Dow -38, S&P -6, Nasdaq -20, Russell -4. (11:55 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix is still under 20 after a little rise with the latest selling. Not a concern currently and sitting just above full risk on (15).

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 625 thousand from 576 thousand last week.

8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.17 million SAAR, down from 6.22 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 6.02 million SAAR for March.

11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

A nice rebound on Wednesday. We still have an evening star pattern marked on the chart. This pattern usually marks a top area and/or a change in trend. If we rise above the star then the pattern can be ignored. We had no new changes to our chart indicators today.


* If you have any questions ask us! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Evening Star candlestick pattern.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • The 'Evening Star' tells us we may have the possibility of a top of some kind for the short-term.
  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart show a strong uptrend.
  • Do notice we are near the top of the longer-term uptrend channel currently.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (395.05)(+0.53) and the 200-day MA (359.05)(+0.51)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 395 support level and making new highs.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things look really good.


STOCKS:

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Dropped from 50 to low 30s, good time to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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