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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Jan. 18, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:

The S&P 500 gained 19 points as the rally continues on. The index closed over its 50-day moving average in a big win for the bulls.

 News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit higher at midnight last night - Dow +60, S&P +5, Nasdaq  +7, Russell +4.
  • The China trade war news and Fed watching are the 2 biggest issues currently to keep an eye on.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The Vix has stayed under 20 few a few days now and it appears it may signal that buying the dips is back along with taking on risk.
  • Remember the December nonfarm payrolls increased by 312,000. A huge out performance of expectations! The economy is still doing very well if measured by the job market.
  • We are back above 2,600 on the S&P 500 AND the 50-day MA - Will that level now become support on any pullbacks or dips. If so we are in great shape, if not back into a trading range.

Today's Economic Calendar:

9:05 am John Williams speech  
9:15 am Industrial production
9:15 am Capacity utilization Dec.
10 am Consumer sentiment index
11 am Patrick Harker speech

Quick Notes:  $MS

 Morgan Stanley (MS 42.53, -1.96) reported top and bottom line results that were below consensus estimates for the fourth quarter. The stock fell on the disappointing results, but it was not enough to bring down the whole financial sector (+0.5%), which is now up 7.2% this month.

"Good strength shown by the financials lately."


The SPY charts are pictured below. The first is a 4-month chart followed by a longer-term 9-month chart.

The markets finished higher Thursday for a second day above the 50-day MA on the SPY. This is a huge win for the bulls. The Vix remains a bit high still, keep an eye on it. It appears we are entering a new trading range of 260 up to the 200-day MA (271).

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are at overbought. The Money Flow has been really good after a huge "V" bottom formation was completed.

Next test is to see if the 260 level/50-day MA holds on any pullback attempts and becomes support levels.

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the resistance level/top at 280. Support is found at 260 and 250 with strong support at the V bottom at 235.

  • Russell 2000 +8.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +6.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +5.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.5% YTD

NOTICE: The Russell 2000 is leading the market higher so far this year, outperforming the larger averages.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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