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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - July 7, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading mixed late last night. China messing with their currency last night? Seemed to be in question.
    • Dow -85, S&P -6, Nasdaq +10, Russell +1. (11:35 pm ET).
  • We still look ok technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Fed, Coronavirus headlines, how the economy is re-opening, the Global Economy and upcoming elections.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - remains elevated compared to historical standards, but has come back under 30.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for May

10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a big up day to start the week on Monday. This has meant we have jumped well over the old SPY 310 resistance level now. On our charts we draw this as the midpoint now between strong resistance at SPY 320 and strong support at SPY 300. We had one change to our charts as the Stochastics are now neutral/high, up from neutral.

* Monday the 50-day moving average for the SPY did cross above the 200-day moving average. This is called a "Golden Cross" and is considered very bullish by many technicians. *

We are expecting the good technical support levels at the SPY 300 line and the 200-day moving average will hold on any dips. (But there are no guarantees). So use caution and keep an eye on it. Trade according to your own "risk tolerance".


* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • The Stochastics moved to neutral up to neutral/high.
  • The SPY "Golden Cross" (50-day MA crossing up and over the 200-day MA) happened on Monday. (Bullish).

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the Fundamentals? Virus? Economy & Jobs? Politics? The FED?
  • The Vix is still high and may remain high for the foreseeable future.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The 50 and 200-day MAs are both heading higher now. (Positive slopes). This is bullish.

  • Technically the market is in good shape, but keep in mind the fundamentals are questionable currently and a bit unpredictable along with lingering virus fears to deal with. There is a cloud of uncertainty / a wall of worry to climb.

  • Longer-term we look ok, but we say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • Be aware that we are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty hanging over us!
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.


* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is neutral.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (299.69)(+0.78) and the 200-day MA (299.02)(+0.11)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are above the 200-day moving average and SPY 300. Which are good support levels. (Bullish). So far we have been holding these levels, a positive technically.

SPY 310 is now a midpoint with the SPY 320 as strong resistance. Possibility of a 300-320 trading range may develop.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AMRN - Amarin, AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, BFYT - Benefytt Tech, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (At new all-time highs), IOVA - Iovance (Has pulled back to an attractive buy level), IMMU - Immunomedics (Buyout possibility). KPTI - Karyopharm, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike, DT - Dynatrace.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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