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Today's Trackdown for Wednesday - Oct 20, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.

* Note to regular readers, we are trying to move to a quicker/simpler format for this article/charts. AND look out for short technical look posts. *


Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets had a positive day on Tuesday, with strength coming from earnings reports and large caps.

CHANGES:

The MACD is still improving and the Money Flow has worked itself up to a good positive. (Bullish).

NOTES:

We were expecting a sideways range bound market to develop. With the latest advance and recovery rally we are now near the all-time highs again and potentially resuming the previous uptrend. If not, a new but higher trading range will develop.

Risks: Negative budget or inflation headlines, political uncertainty, and Covid fears.

SPY 425 has been our strong support level and we expect this to hold. This level could also be considered a stop area for some traders if it does not hold.


* If you have any questions, opinions, or comments to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

    POSITIVES:

    • We are above the 20-day moving average.
    • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
    • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

    NEGATIVES:

    • The Stochastics are getting a bit high. (Short-term indicator).
    • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
    • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


    OUTLOOK/OPINIONS:

    • We could see a sideways range bound type of market for a while or a resumption of an uptrend.
    • Risk of drops or pullbacks exist. Increased periods of volatility are also a possibility.

    • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
    • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates? Covid still hurting the economy?
    • Supply chain issues?

    • We still say "Use Caution". Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
    • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
    • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

    * Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

    INDICATORS:

    The MACD is rising. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is positive.

    MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (442.17)(+0.20) and the 200-day MA (414.67)(+0.43)

    The 8-month chart (below).

    We are above the 425 strong support level, but previous support lines were broken.

    Next step is to see if a new trend emerges or what type of trading range develops in the near term.


    STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

    • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Doing very well lately!), CARA - Cara Therapeutics, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis (A bargain here), HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Accumulate under $10), SGMO - Sangamo (Dropped to a really cheap price), TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics (Got bought out by Pfizer for a huge gain!).
    • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation), DT Dynatrace (Good longer-term hold).
    • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

    ** TGTX is a great buy at current levels. Longer-term this will be higher. Accumulate as much as possible. Their pipeline MS drug looks like it will be best in class. **

    * Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


    Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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