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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Jan. 28, 2020

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:    Jan. 27, 2020

Dow 28535.71 -453.93 (-1.57%)
Nasdaq 9139.33 -175.60 (-1.89%)
SP 500 3243.63 -51.84 (-1.57%)

The stock market drops in broad-based decline as the coronavirus outbreak worsens. The news headlines trigger profit taking and overdue selling. The S&P 500 drops 51 points.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. Bounce attempt after yesterday's drop.
  • Dow +68, S&P +5, Nasdaq +22, Russell +5.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index may go a bit higher on fears.
  • CHINA TRADE news is still something to be aware of and can create instant volatility.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods.

9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 2.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

10:30 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for January.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended much lower on Monday as virus crushed the markets. This comes 1 day after a 'Bearish Engulfing' candle was formed. This candle sometimes marks a short-term top or change in trend. The tight stop/support level at 325 was broken. With a bounce expected on Tuesday we will have to see if we can regain that 325 mark. if so that would be a great sign. The MACD and Money Flow are now declining, which is expected after 2 back to back days of selling. We will have to keep a watch on them, but we still favor stocks longer term. So we will be looking for opportunities to act on stocks that get oversold on any market pullbacks or panics.

On the 9-month chart, we are still well above the uptrend line. This will keep us cautious. Our support levels remain the same, with the first support level being marked at 320. This level could also be used as a 'stop' for some positions if you have a low risk tolerance. Much stronger support is at 310.

We are above the 50 and 200 moving averages but have dropped below the 20-day. We are still bullish as long as we stay above the much watched and used 50-day MA.

* Keep in mind - we would not use excessive margin or open any new large positions currently. *

The Vix will need to be watched more closely. Will it spike on pullback/virus fears? So far yes, but still under the 20 level which means 'don't panic' just yet.

The MACD is positive/declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive/declining. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (318.69)(+0.32) and the 200-day MA (297.76)(+0.20)

On the 9-month chart below, we remain in an uptrend channel that has lasted now for about 8 months! Caution though as we are currently above the upper trend line, which is an overbought look. In many cases we drop back down into the channel either by a pullback or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up.

* For those who like to use stops or lock in profits, we would use the upper trend line as the place to do that, currently just above 322. *

  • Nasdaq Composite +3.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +2.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -0.4% YTD

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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