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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Nov. 19, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading very slightly lower late last night.  Today: Initial weekly unemployment claims report.
    • Dow -12, S&P -2, Nasdaq -20, Russell -2. (10:00 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, and political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - with the election over and stocks rising this has come back down a lot. Currently back to the mid 20s.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is initial claims decreased to 700 thousand from 709 thousand last week.

8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 24.0, down from 32.3.

10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.45 million SAAR, down from 6.54 million in September.

11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

We dropped on Wednesday due to negative Covid virus news late in the day. This is an example of why we keep the "use caution" message on here, a bad headline about the virus or economy or something else can turn the market south quickly. 

Looking at how far we have risen in the last 2-3 weeks and seeing some uncertainty remain, we are not jumping all-in to the market. A sideways type of market is most likely to us. The technicals remain mostly positive. This is a traders and stock pickers kind of market currently.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • Late day drop on virus news.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Election results, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • A lot of things out there to worry about still!
  • The Vix is still a bit high (over 20).


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).

  • We were thinking about a sideways - range bound type of market for a while, but the market keeps rising.
  • So - The possibility of making new highs is on the table as the technicals are looking good.
  • SPY 340 is our support/stop level.
  • The top of that big black candle near SPY 364 is where resistance will be found.
  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is slightly positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (340.90)(+0.35) and the 200-day MA (312.08)(+0.14)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 340 level, which appears to be good support now.

The market looks to be making a nice up-channel since the March low. Technically looking good.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here). (11-9-2020).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us this year/tripled), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T (7%) high dividend yield.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now), DT - Dynatrace.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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