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Wild Tiger Trading

Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Nov. 19, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:    Nov. 16, 2019

Dow 28036.13 +31.33 (0.11%)
Nasdaq 8549.94 +9.11 (0.11%)
SP 500 3122.03 +1.57 (0.05%)

The stock market climbed slightly higher into record territory again on Monday. The S&P 500 gained just 1 point, but that was enough for a new high.

News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were slightly higher last night.
  • Dow +15, S&P +1, Nasdaq +9, Russell +0.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is under 13, this is a risk on level. Beware though it may seem to low.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still something to be aware of.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM, Housing Starts for October. The consensus is for 1.320 million SAAR, up from 1.256 million SAAR.

10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2019


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended must a bit higher on Monday with the SPY making a new all-time high. Absolutely no change to our charts and technical briefing as there was very little movement.

[Repeated] The Money Flow is now very positive and the Stochastics are again saying high/overbought. On the longer-term chart a uptrend channel has been shown.

Resistance previously was seen at the 310 level, but that was broken. The question is now are we getting overextended? So, we still have some caution about how far the rally has come and how fast it has run us higher. We still may have a breather/pullback/pause sometime. On the long term chart, we mark the last break out point of 302.50 as a support level. On the shorter term chart, we mark 304 as the first possible support area.

Our current set-up under 'normal conditions' is telling us the next move is sideways or up. We notice the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all in alignment and are all moving higher. The MACD is positive and rising, but could be said up at an overbought kind of reading. Even though the markets may continue to drift higher, we will remain a bit cautious and would not go all-in or use excessive margin.

The Vix is under 13, which is risk on for the markets.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is very positive. We are above the 50-day MA. The 20,50,200 day moving averages are in a positive alignment and heading higher. [/Repeated]

The 50-day MA (300.21)(+.30) and the 200-day MA (288.93)(+.22)

On the 9-month chart below, we have broken above the previous tops line near 302.50, that area may now be a support level. We now have an uptrend channel.

  • Nasdaq Composite +28.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +24.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +20.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +18.1% YTD


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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