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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - June 18, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading lower last night. maybe time for a quick breather?
  • Employment report coming out this morning - keep aware of it and any reactions to it.
  • "You can't fight the FED" quote still holds great weight.
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (The recent quick sell-off and the chance this can happen again at anytime is why we continue to leave this note).
  • Dow -225, S&P -21, Nasdaq -52, Russell -4.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Fed, Coronavirus & Protest headlines, how the economy is re-opening, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - Has spiked again during the latest sell-off, we would expect it to come back down again at some point but remain elevated compared to historical standards.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.450 million initial claims, down from 1.542 million the previous week.

8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -25.0, up from -43.1.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

A mixed day on Wednesday with no big changes to our charts. Good technical news on the week (so far), is we are above the important SPY 300 and 200-day moving average support levels.

We are above the SPY 310 resistance line, but the futures are down as we write this and we will leave this line on the chart. This level may become a battle ground, it will be interesting if we can hold above this line or not.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • none.

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the fundamentals? Virus? Protests? Economy & Jobs?
  • The Vix is still high / spiked up during the latest sell-off. Watch it for signs it comes back down, or not.
  • Support levels may be tested through out this week.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The 20, 50, and 200-day MAs are all heading higher now. (Positive slopes). This is bullish!

  • Technically the market is still in good shape, but keep in mind the fundamentals are questionable currently and a bit unpredictable. In addition, we still have virus fears and protests to deal with. There is a cloud of uncertainty to deal with.
  • Longer-term we still look ok, but we say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.

  • Be aware that we are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty!
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result due to higher volatility!
  • Have your trading lists ready always.

* Using caution = Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is neutral.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (293.23)(+0.93) and the 200-day MA (299.36)(+0.11)

On the 9-month chart below, we are looking at a severe and quick drop of the market and then a rebound.

We are above the 200-day moving average and SPY 300. Which are support levels. (Bullish). So far this week we have held those levels, it would be very positive technically if these levels did hold this week.

* Continue to use some caution - Still many unknowns. *


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: $AMRN - Amarin, $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, $BFYT - Benefytt Tech, $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, $HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics, $IOVA - Iovance, $IMMU - Immunomedics. $KPTI - Karyopharm, $TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Top Pick).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: $T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
  • Tech Pick: $CRWD - CrowdStrike.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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