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Today's Trackdown: Monday - Nov. 9, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Monday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.
    • Dow +380, S&P +60, Nasdaq +310, Russell +263. (12:30 am ET).
  • We look ok technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the economy, the Global Economy, China, and upcoming elections.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - spiked on the sell-off last week, now with the election over and stocks rising this has come back down a lot. Currently back to the mid 20s where we would expect it to stay. Still elevated, but not extreme/risky.

Today's Economic Calendar:

None.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

We had a sideways consolidation type of day on Friday. On our charts we noticed a positive MACD cross and an improving Money Flow. Technically we look like we may go higher and test the top line. We must keep watching the possibility of a triple top type formation. That would be a negative. Will the rise in overnight futures for Monday's open last or will the advance get turned back? 

We still favor a large range bound type market for a while. But there is a possibility we break above the top line and rise a bit further.

* We would still use caution, but do realize there will be some opportunities that are created by knee-jerk or overdone market reactions.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The MACD is rising, with a positive cross. (Bullish).

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Money Flow is still currently slightly negative.
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus, the Economy, Jobs, Election results, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • A lot to think and worry about still!
  • The Vix is still a bit high and may remain high for the foreseeable future.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).

  • We still see a sideways - range bound type of market for the moment.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is neutral/rising with a positive cross. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is slightly negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (338.98)(+0.06) and the 200-day MA (310.68)(+0.13)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are well above the SPY 320 line, which is strong support. (Bullish).

We have peaked above the SPY 340 level, which appears top be support now.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us this year/tripled), $IOVA - Iovance, $KPTI - Karyopharm, $SUPN - Supernus (Could be a good buy after it's earnings spike), $TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: $T - AT&T (7%), $XOM - ExxonMobil (10%) - high dividend yields.
  • Tech Picks: $CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now), $DT - Dynatrace.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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