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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - June 30, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. Note: Fed Chairman Powell speaks today.
    • Dow +90, S&P +12, Nasdaq +62, Russell +12. (12:25 am ET).
  • We still look ok technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Fed, Coronavirus headlines, how the economy is re-opening, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - remains elevated compared to historical standards.

Today's Economic Calendar:

9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.

9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

12:30 PM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a nice rebound day on Monday, with the Dow leading the gains.We had no significant changes on our charts, with the exception of the successful bounce off of and the holding of the SPY 300 level. (Positive). So - the good news still is - we are still holding above the SPY 300 and 200-day moving average levels.

We are expecting the good technical support levels at the SPY 300 line and the 200-day moving average will hold on any dips. But use caution and keep an eye on it. Trade according to your own "risk tolerance".

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • Successful test of the SPY 300 and 200-day moving average support levels.

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are under the 20-day moving average.
  • MACD is slightly declining.
  • The Money Flow is slightly negative.
  • What about the fundamentals? Virus? Protests? Economy & Jobs?
  • The Vix is still high and may remain high for the foreseeable future.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The 50 and 200-day MAs are both heading higher now. (Positive slopes). This is bullish!
  • But we are now under the 20-day MA, which could cause trouble.

  • Technically the market is still in decent shape, but keep in mind the fundamentals are questionable currently and a bit unpredictable along with lingering virus fears to deal with. There is a cloud of uncertainty / a wall of worry to climb.

  • Longer-term we still look ok, but we say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • Be aware that we are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty hanging over us!
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.


* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is slightly negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (296.06)(+0.61) and the 200-day MA (298.61)(+0.08)

The 9-month chart.

We are above the 200-day moving average and SPY 300. Which are good support levels. (Bullish). So far we have been holding these levels, a positive technically.

SPY 280 is longer-term good support. SPY 310 and SPY 320 are strong resistance.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AMRN - Amarin, AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, BFYT - Benefytt Tech, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (Keeps making new all-time highs!), IOVA - Iovance (Has pulled back to an attractive buy level), IMMU - Immunomedics (Buyout possibility). KPTI - Karyopharm (Recent FDA Approval!), TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
  • Tech Pick: CRWD - CrowdStrike.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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