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Today's Trackdown: Monday - Mar. 8, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Monday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading mixed late last night, Dow up/Nasdaq a bit lower.  --  Stimulus passed - Robinhood kids to the rescue? --
    • Dow +135, S&P +10, Nasdaq -17, Russell +15. (8:50 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix has risen a bit in the decline, then backed back down during the bounce back. Currently in the mid/low 20s, not showing any panic.

Today's Economic Calendar:

No major economic releases scheduled.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Stocks made a nice upside reversal on Friday. At least for now, the dip was bought. The daily pattern had the look and feel of a "V" bottom. If so, that would be a good technical and mental positive for the markets. But with that said, we still want to trade with a bit of caution as some technical and physiological damage took place on this latest pullback/dip. 

Good news is, we have climbed back above the 50-day moving average. The SPY 375-395 trading range that we have mentioned for a while now is in place. SPY 375 support has held up.

Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are still leading the markets so far this year.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • We climbed back over the 50-day moving average.
  • The MACD stopped declining.

POSITIVES:

  • SPY 375 support area has held.
  • The MACD is positive, although barely.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • The Money Flow is negative.
  • Possible market top?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • But below the 20-day MA. (Short-term Bearish).
  • The Money Flow is negative.

  • We have dropped into a trading range SPY 375-395.
  • The biggest risk is that the SPY 375 support level does not hold up.
  • Currently we are looking for the supports to hold and then some sideways type action for a while.
  • With current stimulus, low rates, and the economy reopening from Covid, a recovery and the previous uptrend resuming is possible. New highs in a week or two also possible.
  • BUT... There is also just as good of a chance we go sideways in a trading range for some time. Risks to the markets still remain.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is very negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (381.17)(+0.31) and the 200-day MA (344.78)(+0.48)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 375 support level. We are below SPY 395 resistance level. 

The market is/was in an impressive up-channel since June. Will this be a dip like October and November and then back to trend?


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, $HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), $IOVA - Iovance, $KPTI - Karyopharm, $SGMO - Sangamo, $TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: $CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: $IMGN, $OMER, $SRNE, $TRIL, $VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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