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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Sept. 25, 2018

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:

Stocks were mostly lower on Monday after the U.S. implemented tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at midnight on Sunday. The S&P 500 lost 0.4% in Monday's trade, and the Dow lost 0.7%, breaking its two-session streak of record closes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed though, adding 0.1%.

News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Markets are higher in pre-market trading
  • At 8:50am ET - Dow futures vs fair value: +66.00. S&P futures vs fair value: +5.25. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.75. Russell 2000 futures vs fair value: +3.00.
  • Keep an eye out for any trade headlines or political risks
  • The VIX is down about 1.5%

Today's Economic Calendar:

FOMC meeting begins
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 Results of $17B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $38B, 5-Year Note Auction

The SPY charts are pictured below. The first is a 4-month chart followed by a longer-term 9-month chart.

The markets were mostly lower on Monday. The MACD lines are currently positive. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is currently a positive. The 200-day moving average is looking strong and steady.

I have a support line now drawn at 290, a point of previous resistance. I would prefer the market to remain over this level. I expect the market to continue drifting higher even as it deals with the China trade war headlines or political turmoil. We are expecting the trend of higher lows and higher highs since April to continue. On dips or pullbacks, we may look to add to some positions while keeping an eye out on the trade wars and politics headline risks.

On the 9-month chart, a nice channel featuring higher lows since April has been shown. This trend/pattern has remained strong. At worst we expect any pullbacks will not break the channel's lows. NOTE: We have had this same message for a while now, we are still in "the trend is your friend" on the 9-month chart.

Nasdaq Composite +15.8% YTD
Russell 2000 +11.1% YTD
S&P 500 +9.2% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +7.5% YTD

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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With our Daily Trackdowns, additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.