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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - July 12, 2018

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:

Stocks were hit down on Wednesday in response to trade war news headlines and fears. The White House threatened tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Markets are higher in pre-market trading
  • At 8:25am ET - Dow futures vs fair value: +184.00. S&P futures vs fair value: +12.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.00.
  • The VIX is down over 4% in pre-market trading
  • Keep an eye out for any trade war headlines

Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
12:15 PM Fed's Harker Speech
1:00 PM Results of $14B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

The SPY charts are pictured below. The first is a 3-month chart followed by a longer-term 9-month chart.

We have broken above the 278 level in Tuesday's trading and back below it on Wednesday. The 278 level should be watched closely. Will it remain resistance or can we close above it for more than just 1 day. If the latter, the market will be breaking out to the upside. If not we stay range bound a while longer. The MACD lines crossed up and our slightly positive. The Stochastics are now showing overbought. The Money flow is currently a slight positive for the markets.

This mornings pre-market activity points to a higher open. The Stochastics are showing overbought, but the negative trade war headlines may be a buying opportunity. At worst, I expect the SPY to stay in the 273-278 trading range. A breakout above 278 is also possible as the latest move up did show some market strength. On the next dip/pullback we may look to add to some positions while keeping an eye out on the trade wars and politics headline risks.

In the longer term chart, we are still marking a trading range of 270-280. We would add to positions at the bottom of this range or take some profits at the top of this range. If the short term chart's resistance at 278 is broken the next level of resistance would be the 280 level.

  • Nasdaq Composite +11.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +9.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +3.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.1% YTD

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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With our Daily Trackdowns, additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.