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Today's Trackdown: Monday - Feb. 10, 2020

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

* - Note to readers: We will be switching to a slightly new format soon. The Brief Recap/Update on the Markets and the Charts/Technical Analysis will become 2 separate blog postings. - *


In Friday's action:    Feb. 7, 2020

Dow 29102.42 -277.26 (-0.94%)
Nasdaq 9520.53 -51.64 (-0.54%)
SP 500 3327.71 -18.07 (-0.54%)

The stock market closed lower but still finished the week sharply higher. Friday's economic news - The economy added 225,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in January. This was another good job/economic report.


News to keep in mind Monday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night.
  • Dow +48, S&P +5, Nasdaq +22, Russell +3.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index has returned to normal levels. In the mid-teens, which is 'Risk-On'.

Today's Economic Calendar:

No major economic releases scheduled.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronavirus news is in the headlines  and can spark fears. *

The markets ended a bit lower on Friday as I will guess some traders do not feel comfortable holding stocks over the weekend with coronavirus headlines awaiting them first thing Monday morning.

CHANGES:

The Stochastics have risen up to high/overbought. (This is a short-term indicator).

POSITIVES:

  • We are above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
  • All 3 MAs are also in the proper alignment and headed in an upward direction. This is bullish.
  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is slightly positive.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are high/overbought.
  • We may have risen to far/to quickly.

OPINION:

  • Longer-term bullish. Shorter-term bullish, but using some caution.
  • We will keep using some caution as the coronavirus is not cured and we may have risen to new highs to fast again. We would still buy the dips if any should should show themselves again.
  • The  U.S. economy is doing well.

Using some caution:  * Meaning - we would not use excessive margin at this time. *

VIX:   Spiked a bit on virus fears initially, but is back down in the mid-teens. This is a 'Risk-On' level.

INDICATORS:   The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/neutral. The Money Flow is a slight positive now.

MA +/-:   The 50-day MA (322.07)(+0.40) and the 200-day MA (299.65)(+0.22)

On the 9-month chart below, we are in a megaphone like uptrend channel. Caution though as we are currently at the upper trend line, which is a high or overbought look. In many cases we stay in the channel either by pullbacks or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up or a new pattern emerges.

  • Nasdaq Composite +6.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +3.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -0.7% YTD

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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With our Daily Trackdowns, check back for additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.

* - Note to readers: We will be switching to a slightly new format soon. The Brief Recap/Update on the Markets and the Charts/Technical Analysis will become 2 separate blog postings. - *

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