Send me real-time posts from this site at my email

Today's Trackdown: Friday - May 1, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion & Stock Picks.

Previous market day....End of Day Brief....(click here)...   Dow -288.14 at 24345.72, Nasdaq -25.16 at 8889.56, S&P -27.08 at 2912.43


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Big tech companies Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) reported earnings results last night sinking the futures after hours.
  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading lower late last night.
  • Dow -310, S&P -44, Nasdaq -180, Russell -18.
  • Still unpredictable! But we have successfully held above the SPY 270 support level and advance above 280.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, when the economy will re-open, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - the CBOE Volatility Index has been slowly coming back down.

Today's Economic Calendar:

Note: The ISM survey will be for April. The lowest reading during the great recession was 33.1, and the lowest reading since 1948 was 29.4 in May 1980.

10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 36.7, down from 49.1 in March.

10:00 AM, Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 3.9% decrease in construction spending.

All day, Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 6.5 million SAAR in April, down from 11.4 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets had a down day on Thursday as we awaited earnings reports from big techs Apple and Amazon. We did mention yesterday that the Stochastics were getting closer to a short-term overbought signal. We hit that level Thursday and it appears the Stochastics are cycling downward. The pre-market futures are showing losses based on this and negative reactions to Apple and Amazon.

We had a 'Bull Flag' breakout earlier this week. So the question is, will the area we broke out from now become support as we pullback?

We are still well over BOTH the 50-day moving average and the SPY 280 levels. The 50-day MA could now be considered support and the SPY 280 level may become support if it holds the dip.

The next level that could act as resistance above us is the 200-day moving average. This level could be strong resistance.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS - $TNA.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • The Stochastics are now high.

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average.
  • We have held support (270).

NEGATIVES:

  • The 50-day moving average is declining.
  • We are under the 200-day moving average
  • The Money Flow is slightly negative.
  • The Vix is still high / above 20.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day MA and SPY 280. Very good.
  • If we stay above these levels for a while, they may become support. Bullish.
  • Next resistance level is the 200-day MA.
  • Overall, on a technical basis we are in decent shape. But as there is so many unknowns it is wise to use caution.

  • Be aware that we are susceptible to large drops or dips with the current level of uncertainty.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result due to higher volatility!
  • Have your trading lists ready.


* Using caution = Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is slightly negative.

MA +/-: The 50-day MA (275.69)(-0.91) and the 200-day MA (297.51)(-0.03)

On the 9-month chart below, we are looking at a severe and quick drop of the market and then a rebound.

The 270 support line is now considered as 'confirmed' support. It is a good technical sign for the markets that we have stayed above 270.

SPY 280 and the 50-day moving average (currently 275.69) were the next obvious spots for resistance, but we have broken above them. They may become support levels.

* Continue to use caution - Still many unknowns. *


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL Trading List is posted here). We will be updating this later this week.

  • Current favorites: $AMRN - Amarin, $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, $COLL - Collegium, $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, $HZNP - Horizon Pharma (if under 34), $IOVA - Iovance (buyout rumors), $IMMU - Immunomedics (FDA approval last week!), $KPTI - Karyopharm, $TGTX - TG Therapeutics.
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: $T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
  • New ideas: $BFYT - Benefytt Tech, $CRWD - CrowdStrike.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


If you liked this article, please click the LIKE (thumbs up) button.

Feel free to leave any comments, question, or opinions. (Sign-up if you haven't already done so).

Follow us/bookmark us and check back occasionally for additional articles or comments on our page...

Wild Tiger Trading - start/main page.

With our Daily Trackdowns, check back for additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.

.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue