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Today's Trackdown for Wednesday - July 21, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading just below unchanged late last night.
    • Dow -8, S&P -1, Nasdaq -9, Russell -3. (10:25 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The Vix jumped Monday with the sell-off, but we expect it to drop back below the 20 mark as the market rebounds.

Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets had a huge rebound day on Tuesday, recovering most of what was lost on Monday. The drop Monday on virus fears was overdone. Technically the market performed well as we held and bounced off of the SPY 425 support line AND stayed above the important 50-day moving average. On our chart indicators today, we notice the Money Flow had a positive day and has stopped its' decline. Chartwise, it appears that "buy the dip" is still the thing to do.


* If you have any questions or opinions to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The Money Flow stopped declining.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are above the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


RECAP:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • The risk of drops or brief pullbacks still exist in the short term.
  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  •  
  • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (422.50)(+0.20) and the 200-day MA (386.88)(+0.48)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the 425 support level.

The market is still climbing in a long-term up-channel.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* TGTX is a great buy at current levels. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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