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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Dec. 1, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.  Possibly making new all-time highs today. Powell speaking.
    • Dow +280, S&P +36, Nasdaq +118, Russell +24. (11:20 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, and political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - Currently back to the low 20s, close to being risk back on.

Today's Economic Calendar:

10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for 57.5%, down from 59.3%.

10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

We had a mixed / consolidation type of day again on Monday. Not surprising after the big rise we have had recently. We still have our 'Bull Flag" formation pictured on our chart. Also notice we are at the top of that big black candle, which marks a place of possible resistance.

One change to our chart indicators; the Stochastics are starting to get a bit high. This is a sign of a short-term near overbought condition. Also the Money Flow has improved to positive.

As we write this the futures are up a bit, if that holds we will be making new highs on Tuesday.

* We have a shot at breaking out to new highs and going higher. But, at the same time, we would not bet the whole farm. A sideways type of market is also a good possibility.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The Stochastics are starting to get a bit high.
  • The Money Flow has improved to positive. (Bullish).

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Election results, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • A lot of things out there to worry about still!
  • ** - Although - We are seeing more certainty now with the election being over, Covid vaccines updates, Janet Yellen as treasury Sec., etc.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).

  • We were thinking about a sideways - range bound type of market for a while, but the market may keep rising.
  • So - The possibility of making new highs is on the table as the technicals are looking well.
  • SPY 352.50 is a support level for us now.
  • The top of that big black candle near SPY 364 is where resistance might be found.
  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (344.47)(+0.63) and the 200-day MA (313.12)(+0.15)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 340 level, which appears to be good support now.

The market looks to be making a nice up-channel since the March low. Technically looking well.


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here). (11-9-2020).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, $HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us this year/tripled), $IOVA - Iovance, $KPTI - Karyopharm, $TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: $T - AT&T (7%) high dividend yield.
  • Tech Picks: $CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now), $FEYE - FireEye.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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