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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Oct. 10, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:    Oct. 9, 2019

Dow 26346.01 +181.97 (0.70%)
Nasdaq 7903.74 +79.96 (1.02%)
SP 500 2919.44 +26.34 (0.91%)

The S&P 500 gained 26 points on Wednesday after a story indicating China's willingness to reach a partial trade deal improved investor sentiment. The broad rebound was led by large-cap technology stocks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit lower late last night... Dow -43, S&P -3, Nasdaq -5, Russell -1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is just over 18 now. This is a level at which usually means some risk off and cautious.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still an ongoing drama! Over and over again....

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 10/5
8:30 am Consumer price index Sept.
8:30 am Core CPI Sept.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended higher on Wednesday with no changes to our charts from yesterday. After the close some negative trade headlines hit, futures dropped but then recovered. We expect the SPY to remain in our trading range ether way.

We are now above our 288 support line and still under the 294 resistance. We believe chances are good this range will remain, as long as we do not get additional negative headlines about the trade war. Below here 282 offers very strong support.

We expect volatility to stay elevated.

We would still be using caution and taking some profits (on a case by case basis depending on your own risk tolerance). We also would take a few new starter size positions in names beaten down or offering good value (also depends on your own risk tolerance).

The MACD is declining after crossing down. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is negative. We are below the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (292.42)(-.16) and the 200-day MA (282.09)(+.27)

On the 9-month chart below, the last patterns are null and void and we are in a large trading range of 282 to 302.

  • Nasdaq Composite +19.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +16.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +9.7% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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