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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Mar. 5, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Friday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a hair lower late last night.  --  Employment Report for February out this morning. --
    • Dow -23, S&P -1, Nasdaq -7, Russell -3. (1:20 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix has risen a bit, (Mid 20s) but not any big panic as of yet.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for February. The consensus is for 148,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.4%.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.5 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $66.6 billion in December.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Stocks took another dive on Thursday. On our charts, we had some negatives. We broke below the 50-day moving average and below the uptrend channels on our charts. The possibility of a SPY 375-395 trading range that we have mentioned for a while now is now in place. However, we are a bit concerned with out 375 support line. Currently it had held on a closing price basis.

The thought of higher interest rates is currently spooking the market and Fed Chair Powell speaking this week did not help.


Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are still leading the markets so far this year.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • We broke below the 50-day moving average.
  • We are under the uptrend channels.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive, although barely.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • We are below the 50-day moving average.
  • The MACD is declining.
  • The Money Flow is very negative.
  • Possible market top last week?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • But below the 20-day MA. (Short-term Bearish).
  • And below the 50-day MA. (Bearish).
  • Problems: the MACD is dropping and the Money Flow is negative.

  • We have dropped into a trading range that we were thinking might happen.
  • The biggest risk is that the SPY 375 support level does not hold up.
  • Currently we are looking for the supports to hold and then some sideways type action for a while.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is very negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (380.71)(+0.22) and the 200-day MA (343.87)(+0.49)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 375 support level.

The market was in an impressive up-channel since June. Will this be a dip like October and November and then back to trend?


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, OMER, SRNE, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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