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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Feb. 4, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading slightly lower late last night. -- the initial weekly unemployment claims report is due out this morning --
    • Dow -28, S&P -5, Nasdaq -15, Russell -1. (11:30 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - This has settled back down into the low 20s.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 820 thousand from 847 thousand last week.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The market ended Wednesday mixed with no changes to our charts. Chart wise, we are back into and continuing on in the previous uptrend. However, keep in mind the dip we had is why we continue to have "use caution" messages on here. Looking at the possibility of a large SPY 365 to 385 trading range.

On the longer term 8-month chart, we remain inside the dominant longer term uptrend.

** - Repeating - Are we near a top or up against resistance? How long can this uptrend continue? The possibility of a consolidation, sideways market, or pullback of some kind may happen at some point. But not necessarily. Positive momentum and easy money can keep driving us to new highs.

Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are definitely leading the markets so far this year. Their positive uptrend is still intact.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None today.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Money Flow is slightly negative.
  • Possible market top?
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Election issues, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The Money Flow is slightly negative.

  • The possibility of settling into a trading range for a while is a possibility.
  • The bottom line being the SPY 365 strong support level and the top maybe 385 area.
  • Also its possible we just keep making new highs with Fed easy money and more stimulus.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is slightly negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (371.51)(+0.51) and the 200-day MA (333.73)(+0.52)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 365 support level.

The market has been in an impressive up-channel since June. Technically still looking well.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug has been FDA approved), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: OMER, SRNE, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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