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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Feb. 4, 2020

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:    Feb. 3, 2020

Dow 28399.72 +143.78 (0.51%)
Nasdaq 9273.42 +122.47 (1.34%)
SP 500 3248.92 +23.40 (0.73%)

The stock market rebounded a little bit in a buy-the-dip trade. After Friday's losses still a long ways to go to recover. The good news on the day was the 'ISM Manufacturing Index' for January returned to expansionary territory.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. Continuing to rebound/attempt recovery.
  • Dow +231, S&P +22, Nasdaq +59, Russell +12.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index has not really spiked, still neutral/risk-on.
  • CHINA TRADE news is still something to be aware of and can create instant volatility.

Today's Economic Calendar:

Early: the BEA will release Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 million SAAR in January, up from 16.7 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

10:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for December.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended a bit higher on Monday as some dip buying and rebounding took place. The charts still look a bit bearish, so we will keep using caution. However, we still think the dips should be bought, unless the cornavirus really gets out of control. We will have to watch to see if the MACD stops its decline and if the Money Flow returns to positive. Good news for bulls is that the 50-day moving average had held up.

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronairus news in the headlines sparks fear and selling fits. *

Still using some caution:  * Keep in mind - we would not use excessive margin or open any new large positions currently. *

We are above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but below the 20-day now. Currently the 50-day MA is at 320.30, this level must hold or additional weakness and technical damage to the charts maybe done.

The Vix will need to be watched a bit more closely. It did spike a bit on virus fears initially, but is still in the teens. This is a neutral/risk-on level.

The MACD is positive/declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is a slight negative now. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (320.30)(+0.28) and the 200-day MA (298.76)(+0.20)

On the 9-month chart below, we remain in an uptrend channel that has lasted now for about 8 months! Caution though as we are currently above the upper trend line, which is an overbought look. In many cases we drop back into the channel either by a pullback or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up.

* For those who like to use stops or lock in profits, we would use the last support line around 320. *

  • Nasdaq Composite +3.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +0.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -2.2% YTD

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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