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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - April 1, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night.  --  Unemployment report out this morning. --
    • Dow +44, S&P +7, Nasdaq +49, Russell +8. (9:20 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix is back down under 20. Not a huge concern currently and getting the indication some risk is coming back on.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 650 thousand from 684 thousand last week.

10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 61.2, up from 60.8 in February.

10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.9% decrease in construction spending.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but news items can move the markets around.)

BRIEFING:

The markets ended higher on Wednesday with the S&P making new all-time highs. On our charts, the technicals all look great with exception of the Stochastics starting to get high. We still however are leaving the trading range tops and bottoms on the chart for reference, etc. There is still a chance we could backtrack into the range.

We were in the SPY 380-395 trading range on the 4-month chart.

* Repeating: Previously we mentioned two Scenarios: 1) We break above the SPY 395 resistance line to new highs, or 2) we get turned around and stay within a trading range.

At the moment, the second possibility is winning. Keep both possibilities in mind when making your trades. Make your own determination on the possibilities and your personal risk tolerances.


Questions to ask oneself before the trade: How well is the economy is reopening? What does the stimulus deal passing mean? Will treasury yields stay low/stabilize? Will stimulus checks going to the 'Robinhood' kids add volatility to the markets?

Positives: We are above the 50-day moving average and well above the SPY 380 support level.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The S&P 500 made new highs.
  • The Stochastics are high.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are getting high.
  • Possible market top or trading range?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The MACD is positive. (Bullish).
  • The Money Flow is positive. (Bullish).

  • We were in trading range of SPY 380-395 with mostly bullish indicators.
  • Breaking higher currently.
  • Technically we are looking good. A resumption of bullish trend and new highs is possible.
  • BUT... There is a chance we settle into a trading range for some time. Risks to the markets still remain.
    • IF/When will the Fed and stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (386.57)(+0.38) and the 200-day MA (351.68)(+0.47)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 380 support level.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for some quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Dropped from 50 to low 30s, good time to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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