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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Feb. 7, 2020

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:    Feb. 6, 2020

Dow 29379.68 +88.92 (0.30%)
Nasdaq 9572.17 +63.47 (0.67%)
SP 500 3345.78 +11.09 (0.33%)

The stock market extended it's weekly gains and closed at new record highs. The S&P 500 gained 11 points as it got past Coronavirus news and looked at 2 good news items on the day. 1) China said it will cut tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports by 50% and 2) Weekly jobless claims drop below expectations to nine-month low.

News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit lower late last night.
  • Dow -66, S&P -3, Nasdaq -13, Russell +0.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index has returned to normal levels. In the mid-teens, which is 'Risk-On'.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 161,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.5%.

Note: The annual benchmark revision will be released with the January report. The preliminary estimate of the Benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000.

3:00 PM, Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended a bit higher again on Thursday as some buying came in due to China reducing some tariffs and a good jobs number. We will keep using some caution as the coronavirus is not cured and we may have risen to new highs to fast again. We would still buy the dips if any should should show themselves again. The  U.S. economy is still doing well.

The Money Flow turned to a positive today.

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronairus news in the headlines can spark fears and selling. *

Still using some caution:  * Meaning - we would not use excessive margin at this time. *

We are above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. These 3 MAs are also in the proper alignment and headed in an upward direction. This is bullish.

The Vix did spike a bit on virus fears initially, but is back down in the mid-teens. This is a 'Risk-On' level.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/neutral. The Money Flow is a slight positive now. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (321.67)(+0.50) and the 200-day MA (299.43)(+0.23)

On the 9-month chart below, we are in a megaphone like uptrend channel. Caution though as we are currently at the upper trend line, which is a high or overbought look. In many cases we stay in the channel either by pullbacks or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up.

  • Nasdaq Composite +6.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +3.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +0.5% YTD


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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