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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Oct. 8, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:    Oct. 7, 2019

Dow 26478.02 -95.70 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 7956.30 -26.18 (-0.33%)
SP 500 2938.83 -13.22 (-0.45%)

The S&P 500 dropped 13 points on Monday. The stock market opened lower following a report that suggested China was not interested in a complete trade deal at this time, then rallied into positive territory after NEC Director Larry Kudlow said comments out of Beijing have been more positive.

News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit higher late last night... Dow +72, S&P +8, Nasdaq +34, Russell +5.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is in the high teens (17s) now. This is a level at which usually means it is a bit cautious.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still an ongoing drama!

Today's Economic Calendar:

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

2:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy, At the 61st National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting - Trucks and Terabytes: Integrating the 'Old' and 'New' Economies, Denver, Colorado


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended lower on Monday, however this made very little change to our charts. The MACD and Money Flow both are at neutral and we stayed just above the 50-day moving average.

We are now right back near our 294 line, marking both resistance and support. This would be in the middle of a 288 to 300 trading range.

We would still be using caution and taking some profits (on a case by case basis depending on your own risk tolerance). We also would take a few new starter size positions in names beaten down or offering good value (also depends on your own risk tolerance).

The MACD is neutral after crossing down. The Stochastics are neutral/low. The Money Flow is neutral. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (292.82)(-.15) and the 200-day MA (281.59)(+.23)

On the 9-month chart below, the last patterns are null and void and we are in a large trading range of 282 to 302.

  • Nasdaq Composite +19.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +17.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +11.1% YTD


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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