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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Mar. 4, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit lower late last night. -- Unemployment report out this morning. --
    • Dow -90, S&P -18, Nasdaq -96, Russell -12. (12:50 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix has risen a bit, (Mid 20s) but not any big panic as of yet.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 760 thousand from 730 thousand last week.

2:05 PM, Discussion with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation on the U.S. Economy, at The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Stocks took a beating on Wednesday! On our charts, the longer-term uptrend is in trouble. The possibility of a SPY 375-395 trading range that we have mentioned for a while now is now in place. However, we are a bit concerned with out 375 support line. Currently it should hold, but we do notice the MACD declining and the Money Flow dropped substantially with the latest sell-offs. Watch the 50-day moving average as we are still just above that important and highly watched level. For many months we have held that line and bounced off of it.

The thought of higher interest rates is currently spooking the market.


** - Repeating - But, how long can this uptrend continue? The possibility of a consolidation, sideways market, or pullback of some kind may happen at some point. But not necessarily. Positive momentum and easy money can keep driving us to new highs.


Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are definitely leading the markets so far this year.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • MACD is now declining.
  • The Money Flow has turned very negative.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • The MACD is declining.
  • The Money Flow is very negative.
  • Possible market top?
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • But below the 20-day MA. (Short-term Bearish).
  • On the 8-month chart we are in a strong uptrend channel.
  • Problems: the MACD is dropping and the Money Flow is negative.

  • We have dropped into a trading range that we were thinking could happen.
  • The biggest risk is that the SPY 375 support level or the 50-day MA does not hold up.
  • Currently we are looking for the supports to hold and then some sideways type action for a while.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is very negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (380.71)(+0.22) and the 200-day MA (343.87)(+0.49)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 375 support level. Still barely inside of the uptrend channel.

The market has been in an impressive up-channel since June. Technically still looking well longer term.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, OMER, SRNE, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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