Send me real-time posts from this site at my email

Today's Trackdown: Friday - Feb. 5, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. -- Unemployment report due out this morning --
    • Dow +80, S&P +10, Nasdaq +60, Russell +8. (12:55 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - This has settled back down into the low 20s. Risk coming back on/in.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January. The consensus is for 50 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.7%. There were 140 thousand jobs lost in December, and the unemployment rate was at 6.7%.

8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.1 billion in November.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The market has a nice continuation rally on Thursday which resulted in new all-time highs for the Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500. On our charts the MACD and the Money Flow have both improved. The MACD is getting close to a positive cross over and the Money Flow has recovered to slightly above neutral. The Stochastics are starting to get a bit high again, but not an immediate threat.

Chart wise, we are back into and continuing on in the previous uptrend. However, keep in mind the dip we had is why we continue to have "use caution" messages on here. Looking at the possibility of a large SPY 365 to 385 trading range.

On the longer term 8-month chart, we remain inside the dominant longer term uptrend.

** - Repeating - How long can this uptrend continue? The possibility of a consolidation, sideways market, or pullback of some kind may happen at some point. But not necessarily. Positive momentum and easy money can keep driving us to new highs.

Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are definitely leading the markets so far this year. Their positive uptrend is still intact.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The MACD is heading up.
  • The Money Flow has recovered back to just above neutral.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top someday?
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Election issues, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The MACD is headed upwards.
  • On the 4-month chart it appears we are still 'buying the dips'.

  • The possibility of settling into a trading range for a while is a possibility.
  • The bottom line being the SPY 365 strong support level and the top maybe 385 area.
  • Also its possible we just keep making new highs with Fed easy money and more stimulus.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/neutral. The Money Flow is neutral.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (372.16)(+0.67) and the 200-day MA (334.31)(+0.58)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 365 support level.

The market has been in an impressive up-channel since June. Technically still looking well.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug has been FDA approved), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: OMER, SRNE, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


If you liked this article, please click the LIKE (thumbs up) button.

Feel free to leave any comments, question, or opinions. (Sign-up if you haven't already done so)!

Follow us/bookmark us and check back occasionally for additional articles or comments on our page...

Wild Tiger Trading - start/main page.

With our Daily Trackdowns, check back for additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.

.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue