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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Jan. 31, 2020

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:    Jan. 30, 2020

Dow 28859.35 +124.99 (0.43%)
Nasdaq 9298.95 +23.77 (0.26%)
SP 500 3283.66 +10.26 (0.31%)

Stocks recover losses and go higher after WHO declares coronavirus a global health emergency but does not recommend travel or trade restrictions. Therefore, dampening down any need to panic.

News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit higher late last night. Tech going higher due to Amazon's jump. $AMZN
  • Dow +13, S&P +9, Nasdaq +88, Russell +1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index has not really spiked, still neutral/risk-on.
  • CHINA TRADE news is still something to be aware of and can create instant volatility.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 48.5, up from 48.2 in December.

10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 99.1.


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended higher on Thursday, and ended up closing back above out initial support level at 325 and just above the 20-day moving average. This is a good sign.

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronairus news in the headlines sparks fear and selling fits. *

On the 9-month chart, we are still well above the uptrend line. This will keep us cautious. Our support levels remain the same, with the first support level being marked at 320. This level could also be used as a 'stop' for some positions if you have a low risk tolerance. Much stronger support is at 310.

Still using some caution:  * Keep in mind - we would not use excessive margin or open any new large positions currently. *

We are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages and they are in proper alignment. This is bullish.

The Vix will need to be watched a bit more closely. It did spike a bit on virus fears initially, but is still in the mid-teens. This is a neutral/risk-on level.

The MACD is positive/declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is neutral. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (319.80)(+0.35) and the 200-day MA (298.38)(+0.21)

On the 9-month chart below, we remain in an uptrend channel that has lasted now for about 8 months! Caution though as we are currently above the upper trend line, which is an overbought look. In many cases we drop back down into the channel either by a pullback or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up.

* For those who like to use stops or lock in profits, we would use the upper trend line as the place to do that, currently just above 322. *

  • Nasdaq Composite +3.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +1.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -1.2% YTD


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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