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Today's Trackdown: Friday - Oct. 11, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Thursday's action:    Oct. 10, 2019

Dow 26496.67 +150.66 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 7950.78 +47.04 (0.60%)
SP 500 2938.17 +18.73 (0.64%)

The stock market ended Thursday on a positive note, as investors looked ahead to a 'supposed' meeting between President Trump and China's Vice Premier, Liu He, tomorrow. The S&P 500 gained 18 points and closes back above its 50-day moving average (2935).


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were higher late last night... Dow +110, S&P +12, Nasdaq +39, Russell +8.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is just over 17 now. This is a level at which usually means some risk off and cautious.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still an ongoing drama! Over and over again....

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 am Import price index ex-fuels Sept.
10 am Consumer sentiment index Oct.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended higher on Thursday with some improvements to our charts. We now have the MACD from declining to a neutral. We have climbed back above the 50-day moving average.

We are now above our 288 support line and still under the 294 resistance. We believe chances are good this range will remain, as long as we do not get additional negative headlines about the trade war. With any good news, we may possibly try to get over the 294 level here on Friday.

We expect volatility to stay elevated.

We would still be using caution and taking some profits (on a case by case basis depending on your own risk tolerance). We also would take a few new starter size positions in names beaten down or offering good value (also depends on your own risk tolerance).

The MACD is neutral. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is negative. We are above the 50-day MA.

The 50-day MA (292.37)(-.05) and the 200-day MA (282.40)(+.31)

On the 9-month chart below, we are in a large trading range of 282 to 302.

  • Nasdaq Composite +19.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +17.2% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +10.1% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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