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Today's Trackdown: Monday - Mar. 1, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Monday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher late last night.
    • Dow +240, S&P +30, Nasdaq +148, Russell +35. (11:20 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix spiked during the latest sell-off, so keep any eye on it. We have not seen any panic.

Today's Economic Calendar:

10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.9, up from 58.7 in January.

10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Last week we had a sizeable pullback in the markets and some mixed action. We ask again, is this another dip to buy or something else? At the moment, it looks like another dip to be bought. We notice the we remain just above our 50-day moving average and also still in the uptrend channels on the charts. We usually get a bounce back up from this position. There is still a possibility of a SPY 375-395 trading range in the future, if we don't just start making new highs again. When trading try to think of all the risks and possibilities for each scenario.

We are still inside of the uptrend channel and above the SPY 375 stop/support line.


** - Repeating - But, how long can this uptrend continue? The possibility of a consolidation, sideways market, or pullback of some kind may happen at some point. But not necessarily. Positive momentum and easy money can keep driving us to new highs.


Note: The Russell 2000 (small caps) are definitely leading the markets so far this year.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The MACD is declining.
  • The Money Flow went from positive to a slight negative.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are under the 20-day moving average.
  • The MACD is declining.
  • Possible market top someday?
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are below the 20-day MA.
  • Currently we are above 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • O the 8-month chart we are in a strong uptrend channel.

  • The possibility of settling into a trading range 'someday' is a possibility.
  • At the moment, bulls are still in control with easy Fed money and more stimulus.
  • Momentum continues to the upside, but pay attention and be careful.

  • But, we still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • A bit concerned about the recent Nasdaq/tech pullback.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN at this time, be certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is a slight negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (379.36)(+0.35) and the 200-day MA (341.81)(+0.47)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 375 support level. Still inside of the uptrend channel.

The market has been in an impressive up-channel since June. Technically still looking well.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, OMER, SRNE, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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