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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - August 13, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Monday's action:

The stock market dropped more than 1% on Monday, as uncertainties about the global economy continued to push investors away from risk assets and into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The S&P 500 fell 35 points as the Hong Kong protests, political instability in Italy and Argentina, and lack of improvement in U.S.-China trade relations all contributed to the selling pressure.

News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were a bit higher late last night... Dow +53, S&P +4, Nasdaq +14, Russell +1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is now up over 20 again after rising Monday. This usually considered high but not a panic yet. But keep a close eye on it and other geopolitical news.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR again!!!

Today's Economic Calendar:

6 am NFIB small business index July
8:30 am Consumer price index July
8:30 am Core CPI July
11 am Household debt Q2


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets ended lower on Monday. The tech indicators did weaken a little bit as the MACD went from neutral to negative.  The selloff did not have a lot of volume so the Money Flow continues to be very positive.

We reiterate the note above, as the charts mean a bit less when a tweet or news item jolts the market without notice.

Due to many different geopolitical concerns we are staying cautious. (Meaning not starting any new large long positions, taking some profits.) Our strong support line of 280 has not failed us. On the chart, we twice bounced off of 282 which can now be considered a support level. The 294 level shows up as a point of resistance. The 288 line may also come into play as a minor support level, we are just sitting at it now so tomorrow will tell us. So we appear to be in a 288-294 range at the moment till we break in one direction. My opinion yesterday was that we go higher and test that 294 level, today I am thinking we are more range bound until some certainty is seen. 

Look for the MACD to bottom, that could mark a good buying point.

The MACD is negative. The Stochastics are neutral/high. The Money Flow is very positive.

The 50-day MA (293.15)(+.28) and the 200-day MA (277.08)(+.09)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the support level at 280 and the top just over the 300 level. A 280 to 300 trading range.

  • Nasdaq Composite +18.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 +15.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +10.8% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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