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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Nov. 14, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:    Nov. 13, 2019

Dow 27783.50 +92.10 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 8482.10 -3.99 (-0.05%)
SP 500 3094.04 +2.20 (0.07%)

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs again on Wednesday, even as trade reports revealed that the U.S. and China continue to be working on their issues. Walt Disney ($DIS 148.72, +10.14, +7.3%) was the biggest driver of the Dow, with shares rising more than 7% after it said 10 million users have already signed up for Disney+.


News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were slightly lower late last night.
  • Dow -15, S&P -2, Nasdaq -11, Russell +1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; the Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is under 13, this is risk on, although in the 12s it maybe a bit to low.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still something to be aware of.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 211,000 last week.

8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, The Economic Outlook, Before the House Budget Committee, Washington, D.C.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets were a bit higher on Wednesday, ending with the SPY and Dow making new all-time highs. There were very little in the way of changes to the charts. Some resistance can still be seen at the 310 level. We still have some caution about how far the rally has come and how fast it has run us higher. We still maybe due for a breather/pullback/pause. On the long term chart, we mark the last break out point of 302.50 as a support level. On the shorter term chart, we mark 304 as a possible support area.

The current set-up under 'normal conditions' is telling us the next move is sideways or up. We notice the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all in alignment and are all moving higher. The MACD is positive and rising, but could be said up at an overbought kind of reading. So, we will remain a bit cautious and would not go all-in or use excessive margin.

The Vix is under 13, which is full risk on for the markets. As low it is now though it maybe considered to low.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high. The Money Flow is positive. We are above the 50-day MA. The 20,50,200 day moving averages are in a positive alignment and heading higher.

The 50-day MA (299.34)(+.33) and the 200-day MA (288.27)(+.23)

On the 9-month chart below, we have broken above the previous tops near 302.50, that area may now be a support level.

  • Nasdaq Composite +27.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 +23.4% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +19.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.8% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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