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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - July 11, 2019

  • Brief Recap and Updates on the Markets
  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

In Wednesday's action:

The S&P 500 gained 13 points on Wednesday, briefly surpassing 3000 for the first time as investors interpret Fed Chair Powell's testimony as strong indication for at least a 25-basis points rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting.

News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were near a bit higher late last night... Dow +55, S&P +7, Nasdaq +25, Russell +3.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Global Economy, China trade talks, Fed speak, and the US Treasury markets.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - The CBOE Volatility Index is now in the low-teens which is usually considered a 'risk on' area.
  • CHINA TRADE WAR is still an ongoing concern.
  • Fed Chairman Powell's testimony pushing us higher?

Today's Economic Calendar:

08:30 CPI Jun
08:30 Core CPI Jun
08:30 Initial Claims 07/06
08:30 Continuing Claims 06/30
10:00 Fed Chair Powell Testimony
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventories 07/06
14:00 Treasury Budget Jun


Quick Notes:   (none)


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

The markets were higher on Wednesday after the Fed minutes and Fed Chairman Powell's testimony was well received by traders. On the chart, we are up at the new all-time highs. We now have a good support level at 290. The current setup looks like we are going to continue drifting sideways or upwards. Although some weakness maybe possible when the Stochastics are overbought.

I would also consider 294 as an area of minor support. The only point of resistance that could be considered is at the all-time highs and at 300 as it is a big round number.

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought/high. The Money Flow is positive.

The 50-day MA (287.62)(+.12) and the 200-day MA (275.19)(+.05)

On the 9-month chart below, the previous patterns are behind us. Shown now is the strong support level at 280 and the new support level 290.

  • Nasdaq Composite +23.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +19.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +16.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +15.1% YTD

$SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQ

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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