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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - Feb. 13, 2020

  • SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

* - Note to readers: We switched to a slightly different format. The Brief Recap/Update on the Markets and the Charts/Technical Analysis are now separate. - *

Recap of the previous market day.... (click here).... Dow +275.08 at 29551.33, Nasdaq +87.02 at 9725.98, S&P +21.70 at 3379.45

News to keep in mind Thursday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading lower late last night.
  • Dow -94, S&P -11, Nasdaq -41, Russell -5.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keeping an eye on the VIX - the CBOE Volatility Index fell into the 13s, returning to levels seen before the coronavirus started to hit stocks last month. According to the Vix we are back to 'Risk-On'.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 212,000 initial claims, up from 202,000 last week.

8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.


(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

* The charts mean a bit less currently as the coronavirus news is in the headlines and can spark fears. *

The markets ended higher on Wednesday. We are still short-term overbought on the Stochastics though. Use some caution as the Coronavirus headlines may come back into the light again.


  • We have made new all-time highs again!
  • The Vix dropped back down into the 13s.


  • We are above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
  • All 3 MAs are also in the proper alignment and headed in an upward direction. This is bullish.
  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is slightly positive.


  • The Stochastics are high/overbought.
  • We may have risen to far/to quickly.


  • Longer-term bullish. Shorter-term bullish, but using some caution. We are susceptible to some pullbacks or dips. 
  • We will keep using some caution as the coronavirus is not cured and we may have risen to new highs to fast. We would still buy the dips if any occur.
  • The  U.S. economy is doing well.

Using some caution:  * Meaning - we would not use excessive margin at this time. *

VIX:   Spiked a bit on virus fears initially, but is back down into the 13s. This is a 'Risk-On' level.

INDICATORS:   The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is a slight positive now.

MA +/-:   The 50-day MA (323.43)(+0.49) and the 200-day MA (300.35)(+0.23)

On the 9-month chart below, we are in a megaphone like uptrend channel. Caution though as we are currently just above upper trend line, which is a high or overbought look. In many cases we stay in the channel either by pullbacks or by going sideways until the upper trend line catches up or a new pattern emerges. 320 is marked as a support level.

Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.

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