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Today's Trackdown for Wednesday - July 28, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Wednesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading mixed late last night.
    • Dow -16, S&P +1, Nasdaq -5, Russell +4. (11:30 pm ET).
  • All about the Fed meeting and briefing this afternoon.
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The VIX rose over 20 at the peak of the selling Tuesday, but then retreated back under 20. We didn't see a panic. After this weeks events we would expect this to fall back a bit more.

Today's Economic Calendar:

7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING/OPINIONS:

The markets had a nasty down day on Tuesday. I believe most of the downside could be contributed to increased Covid virus fears, as well as some pre-Fed meeting jitters. Even with the sell-off there were no changes to our chart indicators. The MACD and the Money Flow are still doing well while the Stochastics are high and overbought.

The market can not keep going straight up, so from time to time we may get pullbacks and corrections.

The rest of this week is about the big tech earnings reports and the Fed meeting Wednesday afternoon.

Technically & Chart wise the market looks good. "Buy-the-Dip" is still in. SPY 425 is our strong support level, it could also be considered a stop level for some traders.

* If you have any questions, opinions, or comments to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is positive.
  • We are above the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


RECAP:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • The risk of drops or brief pullbacks still exist in the short term.
  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term questions to ask: When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates? Covid?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (454.15)(+0.48) and the 200-day MA (389.46)(+0.49)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the 425 support level.

The market is still climbing in a long-term up-channel.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* TGTX is a great buy at current levels. Longer-term should be much higher. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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