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Today's Trackdown for Monday - June 21, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Monday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a bit lower late last night.
    • Dow -95, S&P -11, Nasdaq -15, Russell -3. (9:15 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a big down down day on Friday as a Fed official gave a very hawkish statement. The last thing the markets want top hear is talk of tapering or raising rates. We had some changes to our chart indicators. The MACD is still positive, but declining. The Money Flow with the selling pressure of the last few days has dropped to neutral. We have had a few heavy volume sell-off days.

With the drop in the SPY, we have sunk below the 420 level and right back into a trading 412-420 range. Watch the 412.50 level as may act as support/bottom line for the range. If we sink below that, there is a much stronger support at 402.

* Currently Bearish Signal * - We dropped below the 50-day moving average. We must bounce back over this in order for the longer-term uptrend to continue.

On the longer term 8-month chart the trend is still positive. The longer-term uptrend is still intact.


* If you have any questions or opinions to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The MACD is declining.
  • The Money Flow dropped to a neutral.
  • We dropped below the 50-day moving average.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are below the 20-day moving average.
  • We are below the 50-day moving average. (Bearish).
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • Short-term it looks like we may be in a bit of trouble.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?
  • Will higher inflation cause the Fed to raise rates?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is neutral.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (416.00)(+0.25) and the 200-day MA (376.49)(+0.35)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 403 support level and over the 420 former resistance level.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things still look good.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Under 30 is a good place to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* TGTX is oversold and a great buy at current levels. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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