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Today's Trackdown: Thursday - April 15, 2021

Were Back!


SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.

News to keep in mind Thursday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading a higher late last night.  -- Full economic calendar today. --
    • Dow +85, S&P +9, Nasdaq +33, Russell +12. (1:10 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, the US economy, interest rates, the Global Economy, any political drama.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix is down under 20. Not a concern currently and getting the indication risk is coming back on. Under 15 would be full risk on.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 720 thousand from 744 thousand last week.

8:30 AM, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 5.5% increase in retail sales. The consensus is probably low (given the stimulus checks).

8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 18.2, up from 17.4.

8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, down from 51.8.

9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is for a 3.0% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.8%.

10:00 AM, The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 83, up from 82. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but news items can move the markets around.)

BRIEFING:

Ok, we are back! Thanks for the good wished we did receive.

While we were away for the first three days of the week, the S&P 500 made new highs. We still have the Stochastics overbought, so a consolidation, pullback, or rest for the market is a possibility. Technically we look really good. The MACD and the Money Flow continue top be strong positives. More new highs are definitely possible. We raised our SPY support/stop to 395.

We do have a gap on the chart. Sometimes they get filled, sometimes not.

Questions to ask oneself before the trade: How well is the economy is reopening? Virus news? Will treasury yields stay low/stabilize? Are we to high already? Will low rates, easy money, stimulus after stimulus, and the economy reopening keep pushing us to new highs after new highs?

Positives: We are above the 50-day moving average and well above the SPY 395 support level.

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive.
  • The Money Flow is very positive.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • The Stochastics are overbought.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The MACD is positive. (Bullish).
  • The Money Flow is very positive. (Bullish).

  • We have broken out to new all-time highs with the possibility of continuing higher.
  • Technically we are looking good!
  • With the gap up and overbought Stochastics, we may get a pullback or rest period.
  • Some risks to the markets still remain. IF/When, will the Fed and stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are overbought. The Money Flow is very positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (391.95)(.) and the 200-day MA (356.34)(.)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 395 support level and making new highs.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel.


STOCKS: < Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for some quotes, details, news and previous opinions on our Favorites and Trade Ideas lists!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Lupus drug has been FDA approved!), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Dropped from 50 to low 30s, good time to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm, SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now).
  • Also watching: IMGN, TRIL, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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