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Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - May 4, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading lower last night.
    • Dow -53, S&P -11, Nasdaq -46, Russell -8. (11:10 pm ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix is still under 20, not a concern currently. Not jumping to high on down days.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for March.

8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $74.0 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.1 Billion in February.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

We had mixed day on Monday, with the Dow and S&P up and the Nasdaq down. It felt like a down day. Notice now that the MACD and the Money Flow are both declining. The market seems a bit toppy/high at the moment and may need a breather or brief pullback.

* We marked the SPY 420 as a possible resistance area. *

Besides the technicals to consider, we will be seeing many earnings reports and the reactions to them. So far earnings have been good. But many have also been 'sell the news' type of events.

On the longer term 8-month chart the trend looks very positive. Short-term we may be a bit high.


* If you have any questions ask us! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • The MACD is declining.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive, but declining.
  • The Money Flow is positive, but declining.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Declining MACD.
  • Declining Money Flow.
  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • Short-term a bit more uncertain as we see the Money Flow declining and the Stochastics a bit high.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive, declining.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (399.42)(+0.59) and the 200-day MA (363.19)(+0.50)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 403 support level. 420 currently resistance.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things look really good.


STOCK PICKS:

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Low 30s is a good place to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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