Send me real-time posts from this site at my email

Today's Trackdown: Tuesday - Oct. 27, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Tuesday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading slightly higher late last night.
    • Dow +40, S&P +4, Nasdaq +1, Russell +6. (10:35 pm ET).
  • We look ok technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Stimulus deal news, Coronavirus headlines, the economy, the Global Economy, China, and upcoming elections.
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - spiked on the sell-off Monday, but not overly panicking.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. The consensus is for the Composite 20 index to be up 4.2% year-over-year.

9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. This is the last of the regional surveys for October.


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide, but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

Big down day on Monday with higher volume and some potential technical negatives for our charts. Just two big changes to our chart today. We broke just under the SPY 340 support we had marked and worse, we closed just under the 50-day moving average. We will have to watch and see if we recover/bounce back above those levels or not. The silver lining Monday was the market did have some dip buying and ended up from the lows.

Notice: the political spat over a stimulus deal and the upcoming elections has added some uncertainty to the markets. With the election getting close we appear to be in an undecided place. Until the election is over and we get a bit of certainty we would expect a sideways/flat - wait and see kind of market. Some spikes in volatility are possible and could create trading opportunities for those willing to take some risk.

* Repeating.... "Our problems with the market now are the uncertainty about the upcoming elections and stimulus legislation, in addition to the valuations seeming a bit high."


* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • We broke below the SPY 340 support.
  • We broke below the 50-day moving average.

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • We are under the 50-day moving average. (Bearish).
  • The Money Flow is currently negative after selling pressure.
  • What about the Fundamentals, Valuations? Virus, Economy & Jobs, Elections, Politics, The FED, and China troubles?
  • A lot to think and worry about!
  • The Vix is still a bit high and may remain high for the foreseeable future.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 200-day MA. (Bullish).
  • But below the 50-day MA. (Bearish).

  • We see a sideways to slightly higher - range bound type of market for the moment.
  • Technicals alone the market looks ok.
  • But.... with so much uncertainty about the upcoming election, stimulus deals, etc. We don't want to jump all the way in.

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is neutral. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is negative.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (339.60)(+0.08) and the 200-day MA (310.16)(+0.09)

The 9-month chart (below).

We are well above the SPY 320 line, which is very strong support. (Bullish).


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

< Favorites & Trade Ideas > <-- Click here for the quotes, details, news and opinions on our current Favorites and Trade Ideas!

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma (Their Lupus drug is on a path to approval), EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us this year/tripled), IOVA - Iovance, KPTI - Karyopharm, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!).
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: T - AT&T (7%), XOM - ExxonMobil (10%) - high dividend yields.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Although be aware it has a high valuation now), DT - Dynatrace.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


If you liked this article, please click the LIKE (thumbs up) button.

Feel free to leave any comments, question, or opinions. (Sign-up if you haven't already done so)!

Follow us/bookmark us and check back occasionally for additional articles or comments on our page...

Wild Tiger Trading - start/main page.

With our Daily Trackdowns, check back for additional analysis/observations during the trading day in the comments by us or our readers.

.
Are you interested in trading stocks to supplement your income or make a living? Maybe become a professional trader? Many traders have the skills and nerves to trade, but not the upfront capital.Well now that problem is solved!
Try2BeFunded
has expanded its trading program! If you're a novice or experienced trader, you can earn access to a trading account with up to $100,000! To learn more about how to qualify, click HERE and give it a shot! You have nothing to lose it is free to try.

Give Try2BeFunded a try!

.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue