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Today's Trackdown: Friday - May 14, 2021

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.

News to keep in mind Friday morning

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading higher last night.
    • Dow +160, S&P +21, Nasdaq +80, Russell +13. (1:30 am ET).
  • We look good technically - But use "Caution" message has been on here for a while for a reason. (Quick sell-offs and/or getting overbought are a possibility at anytime - so we continue to leave this note).
  • Watch the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - The Vix has jumped over 20 with the latest sell-off. Keep an eye on it. It will start coming back down when the market recovers/rebounds.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for April is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 1.0% increase in retail sales.

9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.2%.

10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a guide, do other research as well.)

BRIEFING:

We had some dip buying on Thursday. It is a big relief that our SPY 403 did hold up as support. It means the longer-term uptrend is still very much intact. A trading range of SPY 403 to 420 is a good possibility for a while. The MACD and the Money Flow are declining again, keep an eye on them. They need to stop declining soon.

On the longer term 8-month chart the trend is still positive.

* If you have any questions or opinions to add please do so! *


IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *


CHANGES:

  • None.

POSITIVES:

  • The MACD is positive, but declining.
  • The Money Flow is positive, but declining.
  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • Possible market top or trading range in the future?
  • Thinking about the Fundamentals, Valuations, Virus news, the Economy, Jobs, Politics, The FED, etc.?
  • Some things out there to worry about still! Or a wall of worry to climb as the saying goes.


OPINIONS:

  • Longer-term we are still bullish. The 8-month chart shows a strong uptrend.
  • Short-term it looks like we will be in a trading range for a while.

  • Some risks to the markets still remain.
  • Longer-term question to ask? When will the Fed's easy money and the stimulus sugar run out?

  • We still say "Use Caution" for a reason. Do not over risk yourself or over leverage yourself.
  • We are still susceptible to large drops or dips.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result and have your trading lists ready.

* Be careful if using MARGIN, be certain of your trades! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive, declining. The Stochastics are neutral. The Money Flow is positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (404.30)(+0.61) and the 200-day MA (367.01)(+0.46)

The 8-month chart (below).

We are above the SPY 403 support level. 420 currently resistance.

The market continues to climb in an impressive up-channel. Longer-term things still look good.


STOCK PICKS: (For trades and/or investments.)

  • Current trading favorites: AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, EPZM - Epizyme, EXEL - Exelixis, HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (A big winner for us last year), IOVA - Iovance (Under 30 is a good place to buy), KPTI - Karyopharm (Good buy under $10), SGMO - Sangamo, TGTX - TG Therapeutics (Our Top Pick!), TRIL - Trillium Therapeutics.
  • Tech Picks: CRWD - CrowdStrike (Be aware it has a high valuation.)
  • Also watching: IMGN, VKTX.

* IOVA, SGMO, and TGTX are oversold/good buys at current levels. TGTX extremely oversold. *

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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