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Today's Trackdown: Friday - May 29, 2020

SPY Charts and some Technical Analysis

News to keep in mind Today - Today's Economic Calendar - The Charts - Opinion - Stock Picks.


News to keep in mind Friday morning:

  • Futures trade vs fair value were trading mixed late last night.
  • We are above the 200-day moving average - this is a big technical win for the markets.
  • Dow -30, S&P -1, Nasdaq +19, Russell -1.
  • The biggest factors in the market right now are; Coronavirus headlines, how/when the economy will re-open, the Fed, the Global Economy and Global Geopolitical conflicts.
  • Keep an eye on the VIX - (CBOE Volatility Index) - (28.59). It is still elevated, but well off the higher panic like levels.

Today's Economic Calendar:

8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2020. The consensus is for a 6.5% decrease in personal income, and for a 12.5% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to decrease 0.3%.

9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

10:00 AM,, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 73.7.

11:00 AM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, At Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies Princeton Reunions Talk: A Conversation with Jerome Powell, moderated by Alan Blinder (via webcast)


THE CHARTS:

(NOTE: Charts are a good guide but when a tweet or news item can jerk the markets around, they mean a bit less.)

BRIEFING:

The markets had a reversal kind of day with the market doing well until a late afternoon fade took the averages down. Apparently there will be a China press conference sometime Friday by Trump and the spooked some traders or their computer algos. We had no changes to mention on our chart today.

We are still above the 200-day moving average and S&P 500's 3,000 mark. With the exception of the Stochastics, which are a bit high, the market technically looks good. The 50-day moving average can now be seen rising noticeably. This is bullish.

* Don't risk to much, there is still a lack of CERTAINTY in the markets. *

IF wanting to gamble: Options trades on these ETFs will give you a way to place your bets. $TQQQ - $SQQQ - $SPXL - $SPXS.

* Beware - levered ETFs are subject to decay and are not for long-term holding. *

CHANGES:

  • The rising slope of the 50-day moving average stands out now. (Bullish).

POSITIVES:

  • We are over the 20-day moving average.
  • We are over the 50-day moving average, which is rising.
  • We are over the 200-day moving average, which is rising.

NEGATIVES:

  • What about the fundamentals?
  • The Vix is still high / above 20.


OPINION:

  • Currently we are above the 50-day and 200-day MAs. (Bullish).
  • The 20, 50, and 200-day MAs are all heading higher now. (Positive slopes). This is bullish!

  • Technically the market is in great shape and appears solidly bullish. Just keep in mind the fundamentals are questionable currently.

  • Be aware that we are still susceptible to large drops or dips with a level of uncertainty.
  • Look for trading opportunities that could result due to higher volatility!
  • Have your trading lists ready.

* Using caution = Do not use MARGIN at this time unless absolutely certain of your trade! *

INDICATORS:

The MACD is positive. The Stochastics are high/overbought. The Money Flow is slightly positive.

MA +/- (slope): The 50-day MA (275.31)(+1.03) and the 200-day MA (297.51)(+0.10)

On the 9-month chart below, we are looking at a severe and quick drop of the market and then a rebound. About half the losses were recovered and then a sideways period brings us to where we are today.

We finally got over and above the 200-day moving average and SPY 300. (Bullish).

* Continue to use caution - Still many unknowns. *


STOCKS: (Our most recent FULL TRADING LIST is posted here).

  • Current favorites: $AMRN - Amarin, $AUPH - Aurinia Pharma, $BFYT - Benefytt Tech, $COLL - Collegium, $EPZM - Epizyme, $EXEL - Exelixis, $HZNP - Horizon Therapeutics (new all-time highs), $IOVA - Iovance (Might be removed from this list due to recent stock offering news), $IMMU - Immunomedics. $KPTI - Karyopharm, $TGTX - TG Therapeutics.
  • If your thinking longer-term/income: $T - AT&T is worth a look - high dividend yield.
  • Tech Pick: , $CRWD - CrowdStrike.

* Feel free to share your list/picks in the comments below.


Disclosure: I may trade in the ticker symbols mentioned, both long or short. My articles represent my personal opinion and analysis and should not be taken as investment advice. Readers should do their own research before making decisions to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing include risks, including loss of principal.


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